Keidanren's Social Security Committee's Pension Reform Subcommittee (Chairman Kakigi Atsushi) held a meeting on June 26th at the Keidanren Hall in Otemachi, Tokyo, and heard an explanation from Nakajima Kunio, Chief Researcher at Nissei Basic Research Institute, on the theme of "Points to be focused on fiscal verification in 2014 and issues 바카라사이트 개혁으로. " 두 번째 부분은 "검증 결과의 팁"입니다.
1. 결과를 볼 수있는 포인트
일부 비판은 재정 검증의 경제 전제가 너무 관대하다고 말합니다. 그러나 보건부 노동 복지부도 정부의 일원이며 성장 전략에 근거해야합니다. 우리는 성장 전략이 작동 할 때 어떤 일이 일어나는지 살펴 봐야합니다. 현재 거시 경제 슬라이드가 얼마나 오래 지속되는지, 결과적으로 혜택 수준이 얼마나 멀리 떨어질 지에 주목해야합니다. It is important to not only look at whether the income substitution rate falls below 50%, but also to look at the range of changes in the basic pension (first floor) and the Employees' Pension (second floor) when discussing system reforms.
2. 핵심 메시지
Looking at the overall fiscal verification, it can be seen that even if the growth strategy is successful, the decline in benefits due to declining birthrates and longevity cannot be covered, and that a significant decline in basic pensions compared to the Employees' Pension Insurance is inevitable. 반면에, 성장 전략이 작동하지 않으면 최악의 시나리오에서는 전국 연금 준비금이 부족합니다. To ensure a 50% future income replacement rate, the key is to simultaneously achieve a simultaneous reduction in the birthrate, along with the success of growth strategies and women's participation in labor.
3. 경제 및 인구 영향
Of the eight economic assumptions used for the verification (see Figure 1), cases A to E where growth strategies are successful have almost the same results, indicating that even with a slight economic upturn, there are limits to the rapid end of benefits reductions. Of note are cases E and F. In these two cases, the assumptions of prices and wage growth rates differ in the degree of labor participation, but there is a significant difference in the level of future benefits (see Figure 2).
여성과 다른 사람들의 노동 참여가 연금 재정의 열쇠를 보유하고 있음이 분명합니다. In addition, responses to system reforms will change depending on whether H, where economic growth rates, prices, and wage growth rates are all low, are considered rare cases or as important risk information.
인구 가정도 큰 영향을 미칩니다. If the birth rate drops as in the current Tokyo area, or if the longevity continues to progress further, the level of benefits will also fall significantly in Cases C and E. There are concerns that if the economy slumps, the birth rate will fall, so caution is necessary.
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다음 번에는 "바카라사이트와 옵션"을 설명하겠습니다.
[경제 정책 본부]